Origin: Europe

Volatility because of Europe / US / Turkey travel restrictions:

Border closures to/from European destinations continue to be announced.
The Norwegian government will suspend all flights to /from Norway as of March 16.

Turkey halted flights from nine European countries — Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, Sweden and the Netherlands until April 17.

New travel restrictions announced in the United States on flights from Europe will also include the United Kingdom and Ireland as of March 17. This will have a significant impact on capacity, as 65% of cargo capacity from mainland Europe and the UK is belly space on passenger aircraft, according to Seabury. Air freight is currently 51% of total Transatlantic trade value.
We are seeing knock-on effects in other regions. For example, in Hong Kong, we have seen a sharp increase in rates to both Europe and US triggered by new entry restrictions to US. Charter rates, as an example, have surged by up to 50% in the last 36 hours.
Going into the week of March 16, we can expect capacity shortages and considerable increases to spot price rates.
That said, space is available from Europe/US, with certain constraints like premium rates and no transit time commitments.

Spotlight: Italy

There have been 2,100+ flight cancellations affecting Italy in the month of March and April.
Despite government regulations to lock-down the country to prevent the spread of the virus, cargo transportation is continuing as usual, albeit with potential delays.
Trucking from and to Italy is still available and alternative routings have been implemented to ensure movement of cargo.

Please see below an update on capacity by country with origin points in Europe.

 

Origin: Americas

Americas/Europe:

The US government decision to suspend travel from Europe to the US, and subsequent reductions on belly space for cargo, will significantly impact capacity and rates in both directions.

Space is available, but at premium rates and without transit time guarantees.

Going into the week of March 16, we can expect capacity shortages both inbound and outbound to Europe.

Americas/Asia trades:

Passenger airlines from the Americas further suspended or reduced frequencies to China, Japan and South Korea until at least the end of April. Some carriers announced suspensions until October.

Freighter schedules from the US are still inconsistent, but are ramping up and getting back to normal

Capacity constrains in Asian transit hubs remains to destination without direct flight options from the Americas

Americas/Middle East and Indian subcontinent:

The US government decision to suspend travel from Europe to the US, and subsequent reductions on belly space for cargo, will significantly impact capacity and rates in both directions also to markets beyond Europe.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar travel restrictions is reducing capacity to this market to freighters only

Please see below an update on capacity by country with origin points in the Americas.

 

Origin: Asia

Asia overview:

Seabury’s cargo-capacity update indicates that global scheduled wide-body capacity in March is down more than 14%. Decreases have taken place across all routes to and from Asia-Pacific.
All major Asian airports are showing declines in cargo capacity. Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing show the largest declines in cargo capacity.
Belly capacity from European airports to northeast Asia also has fallen. The declines have been greatest from Italian airports – Rome and Milan.
However, fast-changing travel restrictions indicate that we can expect further declines in capacity from Germany, France and Spain to Asian destinations in coming weeks.

 

Origin: Middle East

Middle East overview:

Intra-regional capacity has been reduced due to the cancelation of all passenger flights to/from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and for selected airlines for Bahrain, Qatar and Egypt.
Intra-regional passenger flight capacity is being substituted by freighters, which are still allowed to fly to all counties in the Middle East.